We are already into Week 3 of the NFL season. Can you believe it? More importantly, we’ve already seen some stunning betting trends and outcomes coming to fruition. Now let’s keep it rolling!
For the second week in a row, FOX Sports Research had some big winners in last week’s trends piece. Two double-digit underdogs covered, four home underdogs covered or pushed, Aaron Rodgers covered, Kliff Kingsbury continued to dominate as a road underdog, the Detroit Lions covered in their first instance as a home favorite under Dan Campbell and Sean McDermott once again dominated as a double-digit favorite.
FOX Sports Research is diving into the data to give you more winners this weekend. We dissected overall patterns and more coach- and player-specific trends.
Here’s a look at the big trends that stand out, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
The Over hits in Week 3
Our data told us that the under historically hits in Weeks 1 and 2, but not this time. No matter what time frame you look from, the over almost always hits in Week 3.
Below we listed out how often the number goes over in the third week of the season from different historical periods:
Since 1995: 51.3% (203/396)
Since 2005: 54.2% (142/262)
Since 2015: 55.5% (61/110)
Teams that are 0-2 cover in Week 3
It’s always tough to bet on winless teams, so this trend might surprise a few people. However, our data points towards 0-2 teams covering in Week 3 when looking back at the last 21 seasons. Since 2000, the cover percentage has ranged between 53% and 60.5% for teams that enter Week 3 with an 0-2 record.
Since 2000: 53% (88/166)
Since 2005: 55.6% (75/135)
Since 2010: 58.9% (56/95)
Since 2015: 58.3% (35/60)
Since 2017: 60.5% (26/43)
Five teams fit this bill entering Sunday, with two of them playing each other (Raiders at Titans).
Sean McDermott owns the Dolphins
We’ve been singing the Buffalo Bills’ praises for the last two weeks, with Week 3 being no different. Sean McDermott is an astounding 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) (66.7%) and 9-1 straight up (SU) (90%) vs. the Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen was under center for eight of those games, going 4-3-1 ATS (57.1%) and 7-1 SU (87.5%).
For what it’s worth, the one loss did come in Miami in 2018, which is where Sunday’s game will take place. Mike McDaniel’s squad is also coming off an upset win against the Baltimore Ravens last week. Buffalo is currently a 5.5-point favorite.
The Saints win and cover against the Panthers
The New Orleans Saints haven’t gotten off to the best start. In Week 1, they squeaked out a one-point victory against the Atlanta Falcons, followed by a 20-10 loss at home vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. However, this week the Saints face the Carolina Panthers, who are 0-2 ATS and 0-2 SU thus far. Going back to 2014, New Orleans is 10-6 ATS (62.5%) and SU vs. Carolina in the regular season.
Something of note is that the over has hit in 10 of those matchups at a 62.5% clip.
The Saints are currently 3-point favorites at FOX Bet.
Rams should win and cover vs. the Cardinals
This one is a bit surprising given the Arizona Cardinals‘ miraculous comeback win last season and the Los Angeles Rams‘ early season struggles, but history says otherwise. Since 2015, the Rams are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) and SU against the Cardinals. Under Sean McVay specifically (since 2017), Los Angeles is 10-5 ATS (66.7%) and SU on the road vs. NFC West opponents.
If you like this trend, Los Angeles is currently a 3.5-point favorite at FOX Bet.
Look for the Cowboys to cover against the Giants
Another tough one here as the Dallas Cowboys are still without Dak Prescott, but there are a couple of trends pointing in Dallas’ direction. Since 2015, the Cowboys are 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) and 10-4 SU (71.4%) vs. the New York Giants. They’re also 5-2 ATS (71.4%) and SU in Monday games in that same time span.
Dallas is also 17-7 ATS (70.8%) and 18-6 SU (75%) vs. NFC East opponents since 2018, with the over hitting in 15 of those games (62.5%).
Also, a reminder that Cooper Rush is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU as a starter in his career. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point underdogs at FOX Bet, with the line already dropping to one.
Andy Reid covers as a road favorite and dominates in Week 3
Andy Reid is a cover machine when a road favorite as the Kansas City Chiefs head coach, going 27-17 ATS (61.4%) and 34-10 SU (77.3%). He’s also been historically dominant in Week 3. As a head coach (including his time with the Philadelphia Eagles), Reid is 16-6 ATS (72.7%) and SU in Week 3 games.
Furthermore, the Chiefs are 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 10-1 SU (90.9%) as six-to-eight point road favorites under Reid. Kansas City is currently 6.5-point favorite vs the Indianapolis Colts at FOX Bet.
So are you ready to place some NFL bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!
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