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Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The PLAYERS Championship may be viewed as the “fifth major” by some, but I’ve found it to be one of the more difficult events to handicap. Each of the last three editions has been won by elite players — and major champions — Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Cam Smith. But non-household names like Fred Funk, Tim Clark and K.J. Choi have also emerged victorious at TPC Sawgrass.
Making matters even cloudier, it’s hard to factor in much recent history as last year’s event was full of bad weather and a 36-hole Saturday cut. Here’s the kicker, last year’s winner — Cam Smith — isn’t even here to defend his title as he’s gone to the LIV Tour.
I’m not going to go crazy with a ton of picks, but since this is one of the biggest tournaments of the year, here are a few wagers I’m making for the event.
RELATED: PLAYERS Championship Odds at FOX Bet
Top Picks
Patrick Cantlay +1400 to win (bet $10 to win $150 total); +180 Top 10 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
I can’t seem to figure Cantlay out, and the fact he’s missed the cut here in each of the last three trips probably doesn’t offer much confidence. But his first two go-rounds were respectable top-25 finishes, and there’s no question he’s in form, coming off a third in the Genesis and a fourth last week at Bay Hill. So you can shake off those concerns of Cantlay being better suited to win on the West Coast Swing.
If you look at his stats, it all makes sense as to why he’s so successful right now — fourth in green in regulation (GIR) and second in Birdie Average. The only players with shorter odds than Cantlay this week are Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, so a win would be no surprise.
Viktor Hovland +2500 to win (bet $10 to win $260 total); +280 Top 10 (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Last year Hovland played this portion of the season quite well, finishing in the top 10 at the Genesis, Arnold Palmer Invitational and The PLAYERS. A Sunday 75 pushed Hovland out of contention in a crowded leaderboard at Bay Hill, but his play appears to be trending up as he’s made improvements from last year in Strokes Gained (SG): Total and driving accuracy.
He’s also someone you may want to consider for First Round Leader, as he’s eighth on TOUR in first-round scoring average. Hovland is always an adventure around the green, but there’s plenty to like about the other parts of his game.
Long-Shot Sprinkle
Rickie Fowler +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total); +230 Top 20 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
The 2015 PLAYERS champion has been dialed in with his irons this year — ninth in SG Approach — after finishing 150th and 157th the last two years. Fowler already has three top 10s this year — he had a combined two in 2021 and 2022 — and has fired an opening round 68 in each of his last two events, so he’s been in it from the start. Obviously, asking for a win is a lot, but it’s not the worst stab, nor is almost 2.5-to-1 to finish in the top 20.
Matchup Play
Keegan Bradley -110 vs. Matt Fitzpatrick
Bradley very easily could have won this event last year and hasn’t been outside the top 30 here since 2017. He’s played well in some of the tougher fields and tougher tracks this year, finishing second at Torrey and 10th last week.
Fitzpatrick had a solid week as well at Bay Hill, but he’s also been battling a neck injury and missed cuts at Riviera and Pebble Beach. At this price, I like Bradley in this matchup.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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