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A thrilling college football season will come to a close on Monday when No. 1 Georgia and No. 3 TCU meet in the College Football Playoff Championship.
It’s an intriguing matchup, a classic David-vs.-Goliath showdown.
On one hand, you have the defending national champs from Georgia, an SEC power and NFL talent factory that has only lost one game over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are looking to become the first repeat champions since Alabama in 2011-12.
On the other hand, you have TCU, a small school by Power 5 standards out of the Big 12, a program that was thought so little of heading into the season that it was not only unranked but was picked to finish seventh in its own conference.
Here is everything to know about the College Football Playoff Championship Game.
MATCHUP
National Championship Game: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 1 Georgia
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
When: Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Georgia by 12.5 (per FOX Bet, as of Wednesday evening ET)
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Georgia: The Bulldogs stayed unbeaten thanks to a fourth-quarter comeback and 42-41 victory over Ohio State in the Peach Bowl. Buckeyes kicker Noah Ruggles missed a potential game-winning 50-yard field goal in the final seconds.
You can read a complete breakdown of the game here.
TCU: The Horned Frogs out-bullied the Big Ten champs from Michigan with a wild, 51-45 victory in the Fiesta Bowl. Dylan Horton had four sacks and a forced fumble, and Bud Clark and Dee Winters each returned interceptions for touchdowns.
You can read a complete breakdown of the game here.
Can Max Duggan lead an upset of Georgia?
KEYS TO THE GAME
Bryan Fischer has a full breakdown of what to expect when either team has the ball, here.
When Georgia has the ball
The Bulldogs are unique in that they have two star tight ends.
Brock Bowers won the Mackey Award as the nation’s best tight end and leads the team in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s also scored three times on the ground and averages more than 13 yards per rush by using his athleticism and frame to look just as nimble as one of the team’s trio of top tailbacks.
Then there’s Darnell Washington at 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds. Though he is questionable for the title game after suffering an injury against Ohio State, the big junior’s presence typically allows the team to line up in 12 (one back, two tight ends) or 22 (two backs, two tight ends) personnel far more than your typical program does in college football. Having Washington and Bowers in to block on running plays can create advantages and overloads that create daylight for Kenny McIntosh, Daijun Edwards or Kendall Milton to run through.
Those tight ends can also become weapons in the passing game, against either smaller defensive backs or slower linebackers. Toss in a quarterback in Stetson Bennett who thrives at identifying coverages and knowing where to place the ball, and there’s a reason why UGA has had a top-10 scoring offense the past two years.
“That’s the thing that’s unique about this team. Most of the time you play against a good team and there’s two or three guys you say, look, we’ve gotta really take this guy away,” said Dykes. “But Georgia has just so many good players and guys that are really exceptional talents. You can’t go into a game and just say, okay, look, we’re going to — if we take this guy away then they’re going to have problems. That’s not the case with their offense.”
When TCU has the ball
While Dykes is a first–generation Air Raid disciple, the Horned Frogs rank fourth in the country in scoring this season through remarkable balance, rushing for just over 204 yards per game while throwing for a tick under 270 each time out. Much of that is directly attributable not just to philosophy, but also because of the guy running the show in Heisman runner-up Max Duggan.
“He’s got great players to do it with. He understands defenses. I think he’s very smart. There’s no defense he’s going to see that he hasn’t seen before. You’re not tricking an experienced quarterback,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said of TCU’s veteran behind center. “They have a system to allow him to manage that and to get back to third downs where you’ve got a shot to convert them.”
As Ohio State showed, you can find some success against the Bulldogs with your passing attack, as their secondary is the weakest of the three levels under Smart this season. TCU often utilizes formations maximizing the entire width of the field and will need to continue to do so in the title game, with receivers lining up outside the numbers pulling defenders away from the box and out of their traditional lanes. Kent State found some success doing this earlier in the season, and there’s no reason to think the Horned Frogs can’t get something going and even bake it into their typically successful screen game, too.
At the same time, Dykes and Duggan will have to stay aggressive and pick good spots to take shots at big plays. They’ve been phenomenal at dialing things up for either long touchdowns or big chunk yardage and will need to keep that rolling if they want to have a shot at winning it all.
THE PICKS: WHO WINS THE GAME AND WHY?
We asked our staff to predict which team would win the big game. Below are some brief excerpts, but you can SEE ALL THE PREDICTIONS HERE.
“TCU will need more magic than UGA — like two pick-sixes — to pull off the biggest upset in the history of the College Football Playoff era.” — RJ Young
“For Georgia to become the first team to win back-to-back national championships since Alabama did it in 2011 and 2012, it will have to do the opposite of what Michigan did in the Fiesta Bowl. And that’s stop TCU’s run game.” — Laken Litman
“It feels like [TCU has] enough athleticism and will to move the ball on a Georgia defense that is arguably the best in college football thanks in part to the well-rounded game plans of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley.” — Michael Cohen
“TCU doesn’t have that look of being just happy to be here and legitimately has a shot, but it’s hard to overlook the experience Kirby Smart’s crew has in moments like this as they lock up back-to-back national titles and ensure their place in the history books.” — Bryan Fischer
- The pick: Georgia (three votes)
PREGAME READING
- The 2010 TCU team didn’t get into the national championship game despite being undefeated. But quarterback Andy Dalton and other members of that team are watching the current Horned Frogs squad closely, and rejoicing in the fact that this team is getting the opportunity that they never did. READ MORE
- It’s not easy getting to the top, and it’s even tougher to stay there. But Georgia’s Kirby Smart has a plan to make it happen. READ MORE
- There’s a coach with the last name Riley who has a chance to win a national championship on Monday. But it’s not celebrated USC coach Lincoln Riley. Instead, it’s Lincoln’s younger brother Garrett, the offensive coordinator at TCU. READ MORE
- It’s rare to have one rags-to-riches quarterback play for a national championship, but this season we get two in Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett. How did they both beat the odds and overcome the doubters? READ MORE
- If TCU is to have a shot to beat Georgia, it will have to figure out a way to neutralize star defensive lineman Jalen Carter — and the Horned Frogs know it. READ MORE
- It’s not easy producing a national championship in your first season with a program. In fact, it’s only been done three times. Sonny Dykes’ formula at TCU has given him a chance to be the fourth. READ MORE
- We took a look at the top individual matchups that will have the biggest impact on who ends up holding that golden trophy up at the end. READ MORE
- If you took the rosters of both TCU and Georgia and combined them into one superteam, what would the starting lineup look like? We did just that! READ MORE
- Who are the top NFL prospects on each team? Which players need to impress the scouts most? Which individual matchup is most intriguing? We take a deep look at the game from a pro scout’s perspective. READ MORE
- With Texas and Oklahoma soon departing for the SEC, TCU’s championship run has added importance for the Big 12, and the rest of the conference is watching. READ MORE
- A statistical breakdown of the championship matchup, and what it all means. READ MORE
- Georgia and TCU built their programs in very different ways. Is one more sustainable than the other? READ MORE
- What should fans look for when Georgia has the ball? How about when TCU has possession? We break it all down with a comprehensive Xs and Os preview. READ MORE
- What is the key to winning a championship in the modern age? FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt says it’s all about having an offense capable of winning a shootout. READ MORE
- A year ago, Sonny Dykes was just trying to drum up some attention for his SMU program, now he’s in the title game in his first season at TCU. READ MORE
- An extremely odd run! TCU was +20000 to win the national title at the start of the season. We chart the Horned Frogs’ amazing betting journey from start to finish. READ MORE
- You might have known that TCU coach Sonny Dykes never played college football, but did you know that he played college baseball? He did! And a number of his former Texas Tech teammates were eager to share stories about the man from their playing days. READ MORE
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