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Greg Auman
NFC South Reporter
As we continue to preview free agency for teams around the NFC South, the Bucs are looking at much more subtraction than addition in the next month.
NFL teams have until March 15 at 4 p.m. ET — the start of the new league year and free agency — to get under this year’s salary cap (set at $224.8 million, plus whatever a team didn’t use last year), and Tampa Bay remains more over the cap than any other team in the league.
The Bucs went into this about $55 million over the cap ($57.2 million, according to Spotrac), and there are outright cuts expected for tackle Donovan Smith, running back Leonard Fournette and tight end Cameron Brate, but those still leave the team about $40 million over the cap. In January, we laid out a ton of potential restructures and extensions to get Tampa Bay under the cap, but that doesn’t leave any room for re-signings, new signings and draft picks.
That means more moves will have to be made, which could include a restructure for pass-rusher Shaq Barrett (good for $9.8 million in cap space) or one-year extensions for offensive linemen Ryan Jensen or Shaq Mason, which would free up another $12.9 million. You wonder if, with a limited group of talented available receivers in free agency and the draft, the Bucs could trade Russell Gage (due $20 million over two years) for a late-round pick or pick swap even and free up $7.8 million by doing so.
But even all that only leaves the Bucs with an operating budget of between $25 million and $30 million, which isn’t much when you consider they have 23 unrestricted free agents. They’ll also want to add a veteran quarterback to compete with third-year pro Kyle Trask and will likely have more holes to fill than they have draft picks to fill them with, which means lots of veterans on modest if not league-minimum contracts.
Expect massive personnel change on defense
Free agents represent a huge chunk of the Bucs defense. There are eight free agents who started at least eight games last year, and free agents account for 54% of the Bucs’ 2022 starts on defense, 56% of the defensive snaps and 53% of the total tackles.
To break those free agents down, it’s linebacker Lavonte David (a nine-time captain), plus five defensive backs (led by corner Jamel Dean) who combined for 46 starts, three defensive linemen who combined for 30 and pass-rushers Anthony Nelson and Carl Nassib.
Of those, Dean and David are the most coveted, with Dean seen by most as one of the top 10 available free agents at any position, likely drawing as much as Carlton Davis’ deal last year (three years, $44.5 million) if not more. Davis’ first-year cap hit was just $8.1 million last year, so the Bucs could use that contract as a starting point and framework for fitting him under the cap.
We’ve mentioned that David and Gholston both have dead money from void years that will accelerate against this year’s cap if they aren’t re-signed before the new league year — it’s $6.9 million for David and $2.4 million for Gholston. The Bucs can push some of that ($6.4 million) to 2024 with new deals, so there’s incentive to do those sooner, at least for cap purposes. If not, the Bucs could lose their two most-tenured players, here since 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Tampa Bay can’t afford to keep both Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting, and there could be even more change at safety, where Mike Edwards, Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal are all free agents. Expect draft picks or returning depth to replace at least three of those five. On the defensive line, it’s hard to imagine the Bucs bringing veteran Akiem Hicks back, which means a much larger role for top 2022 pick Logan Hall. Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Pat O’Connor and Deadrin Senat are all free agents, and you can count on a high draft pick being part of the new rotation there.
Of the Bucs’ top 16 players by 2022 defensive snaps, only six are under contract right now, and that’s your nucleus moving forward: defensive lineman Vita Vea, linebacker Devin White, corner Carlton Davis, safety Antoine Winfield, outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Hall. Everybody else requires re-signing on that limited budget.
And yes, White had a few cryptic posts on Instagram on Monday that made it seem like his time in Tampa might be done — the Bucs could free up $11.7 million in cap space if they traded him — but he said he was only reflecting on his first four years in the NFL, seemingly putting that fire out. He’s a vocal leader on defense, but if the Bucs were at all unsure about giving him a long-term extension after this season, a trade would provide a more immediate return than letting him walk next year to net a mid-round compensatory draft pick in 2025.
Find value in a veteran quarterback
There was always going to be a major dropoff from Tom Brady to whoever takes over at quarterback, and Trask will have every chance to win the job after barely playing in his first two seasons in Tampa. All four NFC South teams will likely have new starting quarterbacks, with the Saints making a splash Monday with the signing of longtime Raiders starter Derek Carr to a huge contract.
Carolina will likely use its No. 9 overall pick on a quarterback, and in all honesty, the Panthers are likely to package that pick with others to move up and be in position to take one of the top three passers in this draft class. Atlanta looks to be in much the same position as the Bucs, with second-year pro Desmond Ridder stepping in as the starter but likely facing competition from a new veteran.
Who is that for the Bucs? The high end would be someone like Jimmy Garoppolo, but it’s more likely to be a lesser veteran with starting experience but a price tag of like $8 million or less. Does that get you a Baker Mayfield or Jacoby Brissett?
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It could also be Drew Lock, who was a backup in Seattle under new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, so he’d have more familiarity with what Canales likes and wants from his quarterbacks, much like Blaine Gabbert provided for Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich when they came to the Bucs four years ago. Think of what the Falcons did last year, signing Marcus Mariota as a stopgap before their young quarterback was ready to step in as starter.
Bring in faces familiar to the new coaches
Todd Bowles hired five new assistants this spring in rebranding this staff as more his and less what he inherited from Arians a year ago, and within the team’s limited budget, it makes sense that the Bucs would seek role players who have played for those new coaches.
That could be Lock, and another former Canales player to watch would be Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny, who has been limited by injuries in his five years in Seattle, playing only five games last year. If the presence of Ken Walker in Seattle makes Penny look elsewhere, the Bucs would be a logical match. He has averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his career, the best for any active running back with at least 300 career carries. He made $5.75 million last year but will likely draw less with injury concerns.
The Bucs’ receiving depth has three free agents in Julio Jones, Scotty Miller and Breshad Perriman, and it makes sense that a mid-round draft pick could be part of the new look. But if they seek an inexpensive veteran for new receivers coach Brad Idzik, they could turn to Marquise Goodwin, 32, who had four touchdowns as Seattle’s No. 3 receiver last season.
With George Edwards now the outside linebackers coach, who might the Bucs add from his Cowboys defensive front? Outside linebacker Dante Fowler is from St. Petersburg, bounced back nicely with six sacks for Dallas last year but will cost more than the $3 million he made in 2022. You could find inexpensive defensive line depth in veterans like Johnathan Hankins or Carlos Watkins, and if David isn’t back, a less expensive replacement option would be Anthony Barr, who is two years younger.
Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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