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Sky Sports tipster Jones Knows is off to the races and reveals his staking plan for day two of Cheltenham with five bets on his radar.
Hermes Allen could be a superstar in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (1.30) but it is very hard to get away from the record of Challow Hurdle winners at the Cheltenham Festival. The last 20 of them have failed to follow up at Prestbury Park and that includes top-class horses like Bravemansgame, Champ and Fingal Bay. Even the mighty Denman could not get it done in this race which is much more of a speed-based test than the Challow Hurdle is at Newbury in winter. Hermes Allen may have that speed but on what he has beaten so far, he is hard to make a strong form case for.
Impaire Et Passe has been the talk of Ireland in the build-up but that noise cannot mask what we have seen on the track, which has been pretty ordinary from a visual and form perspective, while Gaelic Warrior will not get away with his marked problems with jumping right against this level of opposition.
GOOD LAND (2pts win at 3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) is the one being completely overlooked in the market despite bringing the single best piece of form to the table in a Grade One at Leopardstown. The fact his price is so generous is because he is not trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott – but, last time I checked, the horse does not know that, and Barry Connell has proved himself to be a smart operator since taking out a licence two years ago, claiming the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday with Marine Nationale. The horse settles, jumps nicely and looks a very straightforward and talented animal. I will be surprised if he is out of the frame and he rates as one of my strongest fancies of the week.
Gerri Colombe is the most exciting novice staying chaser to run at this year’s Cheltenham Festival and he can land the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (2.10) before coming back next year to win the Gold Cup. But he is bordering on an odds-on chance and, with no previous Festival experience under his belt, I can watch him win.
The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) is a race in which I will be taking on Energumene, who has yet to prove he is up to this level yet is priced up as almost favourite. His beating of Funambule Sivola in this race last season lacks any sort of substance when comparing him to Edwardstone and what EDITEUR DU GITE (2pts in the without Edwardstone market at 5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) has achieved in his last two runs.
I am not sure Energumene has been the same horse since that epic battle with Shishkin at Ascot – races can leave scars, and I would be worried that his ability to find for maximum pressure has been diminished. I would not put anyone off investing in Edwardstone at the top of the market but there is a nagging theory that Editeur Du Gite is not getting the respect he deserves despite winning back-to-back Grade Ones, including edging out Edwardstone at Cheltenham last time.
Special Tiara, Put The Kettle On and Politologue have made all in this race in the last five seasons and the Old Course at Cheltenham can be very favourable for a game front-runner like the Gary Moore charge. The trainer is so underrated, too, with horses of this nature, as shown by his 22-per-cent strike-rate with two-mile chasers at the top level.
I am happy to back Editeur Du Gite in the ‘without Edwardstone’ market at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
The Coral Cup (2.50) is a handicap hurdle where class comes to the fore in that those towards the head of the weights have a fantastic recent record. Six of the last nine runnings have been won by horses in the first five of the weights, including last year’s winner Commander Of Fleet, who went off at 50/1.
FIL DOR (1pt EW at 12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) will have to put up a borderline Grade One performance to win this but he is certainly capable for the Gordon Elliott stable, who have won 11 handicap hurdles at the Festival in the last 11 years.
With eight places on offer from Sky Bet, it makes sense to take the double-handed route. HMS Seahorse has a fantastic chance but has been well found in the market in the last 24 hours so I am going to play another Irish raider that has a big pot in him in the shape of CAPTAIN CONBY (1pt EW at 10/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!).
The six-year-old has a huge engine. He was not seen at his best at Punchestown where he put in a massive performance to get within two lengths of San Salvador who got a freebie up front on a day where the track was heavily favouring front-runners. This horse is ahead of the handicapper and I will be very surprised if he does not at least hit the frame.
Since the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (4.50) switched to the Old Course, the emphasis on jumping at speed and racing prominently has increased for what is a very sharp test.
Final Orders looks rock solid at the top of the market but his lack of Cheltenham experience does worry me, especially playing at single-figure odds. BEFORE MIDNIGHT (1pt EW on 20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) gets the nod from me in the hope that a return to a track he has won at before brings out some improvement. He danced home last season in October, beating the former winner of this race Sky Pirate and although his form has stagnated now up in the weights, his running style will be perfect for this test.
The application of a tongue-tie and cheekpieces will also do no harm as three of the last five winners of this race did benefit from the addition of a tongue-tie.
P+L after day one: -3.5
Staking plan:
1.30 – 2pts WIN on GOOD LAND (3/1 with Sky Bet)
2.50 – 1pt EW on FIL DOR (12/1 with Sky Bet) & 1pt EW on CAPTAIN CONBY (10/1 with Sky Bet)
3.30 – 2pts on EDITEUR DU GITE in the without Edwardstone market (5/2 with Sky Bet)
4.30 – 1pt EW on BEFORE MIDNIGHT (20/1 with Sky Bet)
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