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At The Races expert Declan Rix returns with an in-depth analysis of an open-looking Follow AtTheRaces On Twitter Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase at Hereford, live on Sky Sports Racing at 3.15pm.
THE GROUNDWORK
As of Tuesday afternoon, Hereford are officially ‘soft’ according to the BHA site after 10mm of rain overnight. Rain (2-5mm) was forecast for the early hours of Wednesday morning, with a small chance of showers later on.
In terms of pace, Llandinabo Lad, Mr Grey Sky and Presuming Ed could all be vying for good early positions in a race that may well be run at a sound gallop. It looks like an emphasis on jumping and travelling will be the order of the day, while stamina might be called on late given conditions.
LEADING CONTENDERS
Hooligan
Lightly-raced with a good winning record, visiting the winners’ enclosure three times in seven starts. Took to fences well on his only start at Aintree last season, catching the eye with how he jumped and travelled before weakening on the run to the last.
Shaped much better than the distance beaten there, and given he adjusted and jumped right quite a few times, Hereford’s configuration should suit better. Not been seen in 410 days however, and that’s the obvious worry. Worth a late market check.
Llandinabo Lad
Classy novice hurdler in the early part of the 2020/21 season. Hasn’t had lots of racing since, possibly a little bit tough to train, but in two starts over fences this campaign, has taken really well to his new discipline.
Clearly loving his new lease of life, jumping boldly and soundly, but always looks susceptible to a horse with a change of gear so any further softening of the ground would help. Likely to go well for a long way.
Cap Du Mathan
Sometimes keen-goer who has been making steady progress from season to season. Left disappointing chase start at Chepstow behind him last time out at Wincanton, showing a useful aptitude for jumping fences, although a little slow through the air at some obstacles.
Galloped out well there though, so looks in good order. Should get some pace to run at here, with a couple front-runners in, and that will suit.
Mr Grey Sky
Unbeaten in two starts as a bumper horse before maybe losing his way a touch in his maiden (and winless) novice hurdle campaign. Returned in better order last season however, winning at Leicester and Ludlow in a four-run hurdle season and now makes his campaign debut over fences.
Has no chasing experience, or point-to-point background, but comes from a family, on the distaff side, that has produced winners over fences, and physically, looks equipped for larger obstacles.
In Excelsis Deo
Hold-up French recruit who sports a sheepskin noseband and looked pretty straight-forward in his four-run French career for ex-trainer Daniela Mele. Has now joined Harry Fry for new owner JP McManus after a private sale. Didn’t get a mention in any recent stable tours so market will likely be our best guide.
Presuming Ed
Active prominent-racer who has won three races in a 22-run career, including at Ludlow two starts ago where he bolted up by 20 lengths. Again ran well at Ludlow 21 days ago when second, maybe softened up going head-to-head with another rival a little too early.
Has jumped well in his last two starts, too, but Hereford’s fences will be a stiffer examination as he takes a step-up in class.
THE VERDICT
An intriguing contest where the late market will guide about the JP McManus-owned French recruit In Excelsis Deo, but on all-known recent form, it’s hard not to have been impressed by LLANDINABO LAD‘s graduation from hurdling to fences.
The seven-year-old looks a natural over fences, seemingly enjoying this new discipline and was rated 10lb higher over hurdles in his pomp. Hereford is a track his trainer Tom Symonds does well at, and while the selection will likely be taken on for the lead, a stamina-sapping two miles on soft ground is what he wants to blunt the late pace of rivals.
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