Winter Derby live on Sky Sports: Full runner guide and expert verdict to Lingfield feature on Saturday

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Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch gives his verdict on Lingfield Park’s All-Weather showpiece, the BetUK Winter Derby, live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday.

The 2022 renewal of the Winter Derby was arguably the best there has ever been, as Alenquer beat Lord North in a race-record time, with the pair each going on to win Group Ones by the spring.

Lord North is back with presumably the same agenda – a stepping-stone to Dubai – which obviously clouds the otherwise simple and straightforward issue of ability, a metric by which he’s streets ahead of the field.

Let’s take a close look at all the runners for Saturday’s renewal, live on Sky Sports Racing.

Watch the BetUK Winter Derby from Lingfield Park live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday February 25.

1 – Forest Of Dean

Jockey: Collen Storey; Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

There are three things in his favour. Firstly, he’s fit and firing, fresh from a Fast-Track Qualifier win at Newcastle where he had Harrovian and King Of The South behind.

Secondly, his course craft is an advantage, having finished first and fourth in previous editions of the Winter Derby amongst other good efforts around Lingfield.

And thirdly, with age comes experience, and, at seven, he’s uncomplicated and untethered by tactics, assistive assets if, as seems likely, the race turns out muddling and messy.

However, he’s way behind his stable companion Lord North on figures and little or no better than most of the rest, and it’s not as if he’s going to suddenly find an extra gear or an extra few pounds at his age.

Therefore, it becomes a game of probability, and, for me, there are horses at bigger prices just as likely as Forest Dean to reach the podium.

2 – Foxes Tales

Rob Hornby; Andrew Balding

Plenty of water – much of it murky – has passed under the bridge since the summer of 2021 when Foxes Tales won the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot and the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock, showing form that makes him second only to Lord North in this field.

Last season was pretty much a washout, with his talent on the wane and temperament on the rise, so it seemed, but it’s interesting that Andrew Balding is persevering with him in good company, and having him gelded during the winter could make a discernible difference to him.

Augmenting the optimism, first time is often a good time to catch such characters – he won on his reappearance as a three-year-old and was second to Mostahdaf in a Group Three first time back last year.

Adding to the would-be stimulants, he’s on the All-Weather for the first time since his very first race in 2020. In short, he’s interesting because of his back-class in tandem with the potentially reinvigorating variables in play.

3 – Harrovian

Kieran O’Neill; John & Thady Gosden

He’s in his fifth season racing, and his career has felt like talent short-changed, earning just £30,000 in win prize-money, despite carrying a three-digit rating around with him for 33 months.

He has run well on all three of his starts at Lingfield, including finishing a respectful distance behind Missed The Cut and Algiers in third in the Churchill in November, but has since fluffed his lines when favourite for the Qualifier at Newcastle won by Forest Of Dean.

If not before then why now? But perhaps the answer to the question of why he’s here is to service his higher-powered team-mate Lord North, in the same ownership.

Harrovian made the running at Newcastle, and maybe he’ll ensure a good gallop in order to take tactics out of the race and make class count, to the benefit of Lord North.

4 – King Of The South

Jamie Spencer; William Knight

Second in the Winter Derby Trial last year, but he is mostly steered clear of Lingfield (despite his preference for synthetics) because the other, more galloping All-Weather courses suit his style that much better.

What’s more, the evidence is mounting that the older he gets the more he needs a mile-and-a-half – it’s over two years since he last managed to win over this distance of a mile-and-a-quarter.

He finished behind both Forest Of Dean and Harrovian in the Qualifier over this trip at Newcastle in January, telling of his uphill task in this race with greater strength in depth, on a sharper track.

Unless they go hard, which appears improbable looking at the line-up, it’s difficult to see King Of The South playing much of a part.

5 – Lord North

Rab Havlin; John & Thady Gosden

He’s the 11th highest-earning British-trained horse in history. That’s quite the strapline for a horse who doesn’t really act like one of the greats. Of course, what matters as much as that you make big money is how you make big money, and winning one and a half Sheema Classics (dead-heated on second occasion) is obviously a huge cash cow.

But, to focus on the Dubai dollar is to underestimate his other highlights, including his memorable surge in the 2020 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, while the last time we saw him was in the Coral-Eclipse in which he was beaten less than a length, and unlucky to boot.

He’s a class above these, but the burning question is whether the screws are tightened sufficiently to show that he’s a class above these, with a return trip to Meydan on the horizon.

Yes, he was overturned in this as a prep run last year, but let’s not overlook that it took a race-record time and a Group One horse like Alenquer to beat him, and there’s nothing of his calibre in this field.

The probability is that Lord North wins, but is it an odds-on probability, when it’s not his main target, after a long lay-off. I’ll pass.

6 – Lucander

Andrea Atzeni; George Baker

This feels like a case of after the Lord Mayor’s show for Lucander, whose primary purpose for purchase by George Baker at the end of last year was to shine in Sakhir. That was mission accomplished because he won not once but twice in Bahrain, including a local Group Two only last week.

That form, in theory, puts him on a par with most in here outside of Lord North, but his schedule inevitably raises some doubts to the likelihood of seeing a full-power version of Lucander, given a lot of travelling and little recovery time. Furthermore, he’s not accustomed to All-Weather racing, having done it only once before (back in 2019).

7 – Pistoletto

David Probert; John Ryan

Way out of his depth, as was the case in last year’s Winter Derby when he was 150/1 and unthreatening. Has slipped to a rating of just 78 nowadays, lower than ever in the handicap, and an experiment over hurdles earlier in the month came to nothing.

8 – Tyrrhenian Sea

David Egan; Roger Varian

Racing isn’t a beauty contest, which is a shame for him, because he’d scoop all the awards as such a fetching, flashy looker. Despite being a five-year-old, there’s still a sense of unfinished business about him as he’s yet to hit the heights his early days promised.

This will be just the tenth race of his life and it’s significant that Roger Varian is still thinking big, hence this entry, and the return to the All-Weather could be the making of him, remembering that he was 10/11 favourite for the Easter Classic last Good Friday.

He appeared to be outstayed that day, after trading at 33/1-on in-running, and has been kept to a mile ever since, but if he’s going to last out the trip anywhere then it will be around Lingfield.

His extra speed (relative to the rest in here) will count for plenty if this turns tactical, which is more likely than not.

In a race in which every other runner has shown their hand, a long time ago in some cases, the unknown qualities of Tyrrhenian Sea mark him out from the crowd, in a positive way, and he’s perhaps the likeliest to stand up if Lord North falls short for fitness.

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT

It’s easy to say this is Lord North’s race to lose, because of his overwhelming power compared to the opposition, but equally it’s hard to row in big with him at odds-on knowing that, like last year, it’s his warm-up after a lay-off for the Sheema Classic, especially as Lingfield is a pretty unforgiving track for any ring-rustiness.

Tyrrhenian Sea makes most sense as an alternative, but at the odds – as big as 18/1 on the opening show – FOXES TALES is too tempting for me to resist, given that he’s comfortably the second-best horse in here on his old form and the hope that the new factors for him – chiefly being gelded – act as a catalyst for a comeback.