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There won’t be any secrets or surprises when longtime rivals the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles play in a NFL divisional playoff game Saturday in the City of Brotherly Love.
The NFC East Division teams will face each other for the third time in seven weeks. Philadelphia swept the two regular-season contests, 48-22 on Dec. 11 and 22-16 in the regular-season finale on Jan. 8.
The Eagles lead the all-time series 91-87-2, winning the past three contests and 11 of the past 13.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Giants-Eagles game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).
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New York Giants (10-7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App
Point spread: Eagles -7.5 (Eagles favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise Giants cover)
Moneyline: Eagles -400 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.50 total); Giants +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined
New York Giants
NYG
Philadelphia Eagles
PHI
Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:
Maybe I’m being a simpleton here, but this one doesn’t feel all that complicated.
The Giants are a fantastic story. They are what people love about sports — the underdog story. Daniel Jones was counted out, and now he’s on the verge of getting paid. With an underwhelming roster and with injuries, New York battled through to secure a wild-card spot and ultimately, a win against the Vikings. The G-Men are well-coached, they don’t beat themselves, and they rarely make crippling mistakes.
However …
… Philadelphia is the superior team by far. The Eagles finished the season on a downward trend because of the Jalen Hurts injury and other injuries to impact players. But with the extra week of rest, we should see a healthy and rejuvenated quarterback in Hurts. Philly finished the season ranked third on offense and sixth on defense, while the Giants finished 10th on offense and 29th on defense. Eagles also have a big advantage when it comes to special teams efficiency.
The Eagles will also be able to take advantage of the Giants weaknesses at receiver and offensive line while neutralizing the best of the Giants — their interior defensive linemen. Philadelphia will probably be without right tackle Lane Johnson, but I’d worry far more about that when the team suits up against the 49ers.
The Eagles will handle business in a big way.
PICK: Eagles (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points
Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
Divisional meetings in the playoffs with a total of less than 49 have gone Over 17-7 (71%) since 2002 and 6-0 (100%) since 2020.
The New York Giants are a very different team than they were early in the season. It’s vital to understand that teams change over the course of the year. And that is particularly true when referring to a team with a brand-new coaching staff installing a new offense.
The Giants were trying to learn a new offense, and the staff was trying to learn the player’s strengths and weaknesses. The Giants were also dealing with injuries along the offensive line and to starting running back Saquon Barkley.
From Weeks 1-8, the Giants’ offense ranked 19th in early-down success efficiency, including 29th in yards/play on early downs and 25th in total offensive success.
But this Giants offense has come a long way since that first half of the season.
Since Week 9, the Giants’ offense ranks:
- Third in early-down success efficiency (bypassing third downs)
- Fifth in total offensive success
- Fifth in EPA/play
- Tenth in yards/play
And since Week 12, the Giants’ offense ranks second in early-down success efficiency, behind only the Kansas City Chiefs.
What is shockingly wild is that since Week 12, the Giants offense has played the NFL’s second-toughest schedule of opposing defenses.
They’ve played:
- No. 2 Cowboys
- No. 5 Eagles (twice)
- No. 13 Commanders (twice)
- No. 14 Colts
- No. 25 Vikings
Even if you look at the difference between run and pass schedules, it’s been brutal for both. Since Week 12, the Giants have played the third-toughest schedule of pass defenses and the ninth-toughest schedule of run defenses.
They played six of eight games to close the regular season vs. defenses that ranked top-14, including three games vs. top-5 defenses. They played the second-toughest schedule of defenses in the NFL in that span and yet still ranked second-best offensively in early-down efficiency.
So while the Giants didn’t win as many games down the stretch as they started out winning, they had less good luck go their way but played even better than they did to start the season. The Giants closed out the season with a 6-1 mark ATS but only won two of those seven games.
But one thing that is certain with the Giants, given their offensive improvement, is they have become a solid Over team.
With a below-average offense and offensive injuries, the Giants went under the total in seven of their first nine games.
But they are 7-1 to the Over in their last eight games if you removed the Week 18 game when they rested almost everyone.
No team has gone over the total at a higher rate since Week 11 than the Giants.
The Eagles have been Over machines as well, with Jalen Hurts at the helm. Excluding Week 18, when the Giants rested their starters, the Eagles went 9-5 to the Over.
But the important thing to realize with the Eagles during the regular season is that they frequently took their foot off the gas at halftime early in the season with huge leads.
Thus, their full game totals would go under the number more frequently. Such was the case in three of their first five games.
They scored 24 first-half points and led 24-7 at halftime vs. the Vikings in Week 3 and didn’t score another point in the game.
They scored 24 first-half points and led 24-0 at halftime vs. the Commanders in Week 4 and didn’t score another point in the game.
They scored 14 first-half points and led 14-10 vs. the Cardinals in Week 5 and scored just six more points in the game.
All three of those games went under the total and involved the Eagles voluntarily letting off the gas.
I don’t believe we will see the Eagles let their foot off the gas in a must-win game vs. the Giants, and thus I don’t think Under bettors will luck out with a really low-scoring second half.
Another interesting dynamic with the Eagles has been their performances at home vs. on the road.
Over the last two years, no team’s games have gone over the total more when playing at home than the Eagles.
Twelve of the Eagles’ 17 home games (71%) have gone over the total.
And if you excluded the Week 18 game when the Giants rested players and the Week 17 game when Hurts didn’t play, the Eagles have gone over the total at a 12-3 (80%) rate in home games since the start of 2021. This also includes one Under against the Vikings this season where, as stated above, up 24-7 at halftime, the Eagles essentially packed it in early in the second half and the game ended 24-7.
They averaged 28.3 PPG in those 15 games while surrendering 23.6 PPG.
The Eagles have been the seventh-fastest-paced team this year. And over the second half of the season, as the Giants have gotten better acquainted with the offense, they have been the fifth-fastest-paced team in the NFL.
I think both teams will have enough success offensively to clear this total. I like the Over.
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